Dorking and Horley - what the polls are saying
The experts are agreed – if you want to ensure the Conservatives don’t win here in Dorking and Horley, you should vote for Chris Coghlan - the Liberal Democrat candidate.
Tactical Voting
All the four main tactical-voting web-sites agree:
- https://tacticalvote.co.uk/#DorkingHorley says Vote Lib Dem, pointing out this is a marginal seat so it is very effective here
- https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/tactical-voting/keep-out/conservative recommends voting Lib Dem and predicts a narrow Lib Dem win
- https://stopthetories.vote/parl/dorking-and-horley says “Your tactical vote is Lib Dem Chris Coghlan”
- https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001201?postcode=kt18%206dz (promoted by Best for Britain) have just announced their recommendation; they describe "the local Lib Dems as the most effective way of defeating the Conservatives"
What do the pollsters say
Peter Inglesby aggregates predictions from different pollsters for the General Election
Data is taken from:
- Britain Predicts (New Statesman) (8 June)
- Electoral Calculus (14 Jun)
- The Economist (14 June)
- The FT (12 June)
- More in Common (3 June)
- Survation (4 June)
- YouGov (3 June)
All but the Economist predict a Lib Dem win; the Economist predicts that the Tories will hold the seat.
Note that The Economist methodology does not take account of the effects of parties’ campaigns in individual constituencies nor of tactical voting, so its methodology would have failed to pick up local election gains in 2023 and 2024 for the Lib Dems in both Mole Valley and Horley.
What about the gambling markets?
According to Oddschecker.com, the Lib Dems are 2/1 on favourites to win Dorking and Horley whilst the Conservatives are 7/4 against and Labour are 10/1 against.